Decrease in the value of human currency
from Diary 2024-12-21
Decrease in the value of human currency
takahiroanno openai announced o3 highlights
・Competitive programming is said to be on par with global 175th in human ranking (i.e., most humans can't win).
But the cost per task is very expensive, about 450,000 yen.
・There are still tasks that are a piece of cake for humans but o3 are not good at (not AGI)
https://gyazo.com/1fbad1e4e8dbfe3998d704ad7a684dad
takahiroanno Looking at the progress of inference scaling, I'm thinking that AGI might be ready in the next year or so. However, it will be the one that costs an extraordinary amount of money to execute. Then there may come a time of twists and turns, a time when "AGI is ready, but human intelligence is cheaper."
nishio I wonder if the machine intelligence will be used to "lower the cost of machine intelligence" when a situation arises where machine intelligence is more powerful and more expensive than human intelligence. When the competition for lower cost occurs, there may be a competition for resources and the price may rise to a level that is inaccessible to the general public.
nishio.iconConsider the rising amount of money demanded for access to advanced AI as a decrease in the value of human currency, interpreting it as an exchange rate rather than a cost increase.
o1 Pro.iconIf we venture to interpret the view that access fees to advanced AI are "rising" as "human currency" (human currency) is falling, we can see it in the following diagram.
Fluctuations in "exchange rates" using AI
Suppose human intelligence and labor traditionally served as some sort of reference currency.
However, with the rise of intelligent resources from advanced AI, the exchange rate appears to be changing and the amount of AI resources that can be purchased with "one human operation" is decreasing, i.e., the value of human currency is decreasing.
Uneven distribution of purchasing power and the emergence of the "AI affluent
The lower the value of human currency, the greater the gap between entities that have access to (and can invest high amounts of) AI resources and those that do not.
As a result, large capital and state institutions will become more dominant as the "AI rich," while small, medium, and individuals will have less access to the benefits of AI.
Reassessing Human Labor and AI
As human currency continues to decline, the role that humans play in the long run will increasingly be viewed as "cheap labor," while there will be momentum to reevaluate the added value that only humans can bring to the table (creativity and interpersonal communication).
As a result, educational and institutional reforms to enhance human "value" may be sought.
Toward a new currency (resource) value system
AI access will become a de facto resource, accelerating the trend toward new metrics such as "AI usage rights" and "computing resources" being treated as currency.
While human currency continues to decline in value, organizations and individuals with AI currency (the power to buy compute resources) will gain new hegemony and bring about major changes in the social structure.
AI利用通貨という言葉を去年7月のGPT4との共著の文章で書いているnishio.icon
UBI to avoid monopolizing access to AI
From the perspective of the "decline in the value of human currency," the rising cost of AI is not simply an "increase in cost," but also a phenomenon of the decline in the relative value of "intelligent resources that humans can obtain on their own. It is also a phenomenon that the relative value of "intelligence resources that humans can obtain on their own" is declining. As a result, a new division in the structure of social and economic disparities will be created, and the role and value of human beings will likely be redefined.
relative decline in value of raw human intelligence.
nishio.icon"The "widening gap between those entities that have access to AI resources (and can afford to spend a lot of money on them) and those that don't" is like seeing what sock artisans experienced with the advent of the automatic loom." The "momentum to re-evaluate the added value that only humans can bring to the table (creativity and interpersonal communication)" is probably strongly influenced by human aspirations and is not well founded. Do you have any evidence to support or oppose this?
o1 Pro.iconIn fact, the history of technological innovation since the Industrial Revolution shows that (1) existing jobs have been replaced by machines, while (2) high value-added fields and interpersonal needs have been left to humans - a trend that has been repeated. An example is the coexistence of the decline of hand weavers due to automated looms and the need for high-end handicrafts that utilize the skills of craftspeople. However, there is no guarantee that human creativity and communication will really be indispensable, as it depends on the degree of technological development of AI and changes in social demand. From past examples, we can say that some jobs will remain, but it remains to be seen how far this will hold true in the future.
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